Scott Bessent helped Soros break the British pound in 1992. Now he's defending the dollar — buying yen to keep Japan, the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, from selling into the same market where he must refinance $10 trillion in the next twelve months. From villain to hero. We are watching one financial engineer manage the entire system to forestall disaster.

Real demand and catastrophic oversupply aren't opposites — they're the usual pairing. Why the AI capex boom looks exactly like the busts before it.

The BEA handed out two headlines Thursday morning, and both of them are wrong. The "weak" 1.5% GDP print hides private demand accelerating to 3.9%; the "improving" 3.7% inflation number was borrowed from a ceasefire that didn't last. Meanwhile, nominal GDP grew 7.9% against a 3.5% policy rate — the Fed is easing by standing still, trapped between an inflation it can't cure and a tightening it can't justify.

A soft June inflation print sent the algorithms into celebration mode. Look closer: the entire miss came from energy, and crude has climbed 14% since the survey window closed. A number that doubles the price level every two decades is not a victory, and a reading built on last month's oil is not a forecast. July will tell a different story.

Since the Affordable Care Act passed, hospital prices have doubled. And the bill is still arriving: ACA insurers in Washington, New York, Rhode Island, and Oregon are asking for 25–28% rate hikes for 2027 — New York's up from 3% a year ago. When government becomes the biggest customer in a market, prices stop responding to productivity and start responding to policy.